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Live Tail-Risk Estimator.

A simplified demonstration of our parametric VaR engine. Adjust four dials. The estimates update in real time.

Equity Allocation

60%

Defensive · 100% bonds  →  Aggressive · 100% equity

Confidence interval  ·  99%

Horizon  ·  10 days

1d1y

Portfolio notional  ·  $100M

— Estimated Output

Value at Risk

-$8.42M

8.42% of notional

Expected Shortfall

-$11.78M

Conditional tail avg.

Stress max DD

-$23.14M

99.5-pct historical analog

Illustrative parametric estimation. Production engine incorporates 47 regime variables, GARCH-DCC volatility, Cornish-Fisher adjustments, and policy-discourse-implied skew.

— Behind the numbers

What the demo simplifies away.

01

Vol surfaces, not constants

Demo uses fixed 16% / 5% / 0.2 baseline. Production estimates regime-conditional vol from GARCH-DCC across 47 risk factors.

02

Fat tails

Demo assumes normality. Production applies Cornish-Fisher and historical-analog adjustments to capture asymmetric skew and excess kurtosis.

03

Narrative overlay

Demo ignores discourse signals. Production reweights tail based on central-bank dissonance and policymaker reflexivity vectors in real time.

— See it on real crises

Three crises rehearsed.

Lehman, COVID, and SVB read back through the production engine. The signals it would have surfaced — and at what lead time.

Read the case studies