— Methodology
How we build a tail.
Our methodology begins with a refusal: the refusal to accept that the next crisis will be priced from the last one. Linear models inherit the tails of yesterday's distribution. Our system does not.
Every signal flows through three stages. Ingest — primary documents in their original language, raw market microstructure, central bank communications without intermediary commentary. Reason — a fine-tuned LLM (open-weight base, annotated crisis-era texts) evaluates whether what is being said today diverges from what historically preceded a given outcome. Quantify — divergence becomes a scalar signal with calibrated confidence interval, ready to enter your existing risk plumbing.
Production output is auditable. Every reasoning chain carries provenance — source document, intermediate inference step, confidence interval. This is not a black box. It is a deterministic pipeline you can defend to a regulator.